Columbus Blue Jackets 2022-23 season preview (2024)

Welcome to The Athletic’s 2022-23 edition of the team season previews. Check out all the previews as they’re released right here.

The shock has worn off, right? You’re not reading this, remembering that Johnny Gaudreau signed with the Columbus Blue Jackets, and getting gobsmacked all over again. You can’t be. That happened a couple months ago. Get over it.

(If you were shocked back in July when Gaudreau pulled a last-second, $68.75 million swerve toward Central Ohio, you’re excused. We all were — including, according to Columbus defenseman Zach Werenski, the team’s front office. It all happened at once. Can’t blame anybody.)

In any case, it’s time to move into the next phase of a new era in Columbus. The big fish came to town. Now what happens? Is Gaudreau enough to turn them from last season’s pleasantly surprising, ultimately sub-mediocre group into something more? Is one ultra-elite performer enough to make a forward corps playoff-caliber?

The short answer is no. The reasons for that are many. Gaudreau’s arrival carries weight, tangible and otherwise, but as it stands, this remains a roster that needs more work — and more time — before it’s doing anything more than punching up in the Metropolitan Division. The vibes surrounding the franchise are different, but for now, the results aren’t on track to change.

The projection

The Columbus Blue Jackets finished last season with 81 points and subsequently landed this year’s biggest fish in free agency — a player who finished fourth in Hart Trophy voting last season. Surely, they’re a better team than last season, right? Yes, but that doesn’t necessarily mean a better standings result.

Part of the problem is that Columbus was likely a little fortunate to even finish with 81 points last year. Based on the team’s goal differential, the Blue Jackets should’ve had 78 points rather than 81. On top of that, they had the third-worst expected goals rate in all situations at 44.7 percent, a mark that was masked slightly by earning 46.2 percent of the goals, 1.5 percentage points higher than expected. Columbus’s goal rate was 11th worst in the league — the 10 teams below the Blue Jackets all had a goal rate that was worse than expected.

Is Columbus the exception to the rule? It’s possible, but what fuelled the Blue Jackets last year was its offense where the team scored on 10.5 percent of their shots, good for eighth in the league. Given the offensive talent on the team last year, that feels difficult to justify. In the team’s previous two seasons, Columbus ranked 30th, scoring on eight percent of its shots. The model is anticipating that the team will be a lot closer to the latter number than the former — a mean reversion that Gaudreau’s presence alone can’t completely offset.

It’s more than possible that the model is underrating the entire team — Columbus did change coaches last season — but last year’s underlying numbers give plenty of reason for skepticism. It’s the biggest reason why the team’s probabilities across the board are far from rosy. In a very competitive East, the Blue Jackets have just a three percent chance of making the playoffs and are much more likely to be a bottom-tier club this season. There’s only a 37 percent chance the team ends up with 80 or more points. Contrast that with their 55 percent chance of landing in the league’s bottom five and it reveals why it was so perplexing that Columbus was the destination of choice for Gaudreau.

Outside of Gaudreau, this is an unfortunately barren team that looks unlikely to do much damage this season.

It’s not a hopeless one though. Anything can happen, and even if it doesn’t, a season in the basem*nt could spark a very quick turnaround next year — especially with some of the rising talent the team has to offer. The present is bleak, but the future has plenty of potential with Gaudreau in the fold. That’ll be the thing to look forward to in what looks likely to be a more frustrating season than some fans might anticipate.

The big question

Is Johnny Gaudreau enough to make the Blue Jackets a playoff team?

It’ll take more than just Gaudreau to get there. A lot of things have to go right for the Blue Jackets that Gaudreau alone can’t solve.

Gaudreau himself is a fantastic player, one of the league’s few true game breakers and playmakers. While his epic point total from last year spoke volumes about that, digging deeper shows just how rare his skill set is — especially with the puck on his stick.

Based on data tracked by Corey Sznajder, here’s where Gaudreau ranked last season.

• Third in scoring chance assists
• Third in high-danger shot assists
• Fourth in rush offense created
• Sixth in controlled entries
• Sixth in entries leading to scoring chances

Gaudreau is absolutely elite in transition and a true force in the offensive zone, one of the most dynamic players in the league. He’s a difference-maker, akin to what Artemi Panarin was for this team a few years ago. His creativity, vision and evasiveness make him difficult to stop when the puck is on his stick. He moves the puck through the neutral zone better than almost anyone and can pass the puck better than almost anyone. Offensively, he makes an enormous impact and it’s why his projected value for next season is 4.4 wins.

That projected win value can sometimes be obfuscated by context and Gaudreau’s is obviously changing here. While all indications are there that he’s a true driver of offense, that was a lot easier to do on Calgary on a super-powered line. He’s projected to hit 91 points this season, a safe drop from last year’s career high — but even that might be pushing it on a less talented Blue Jackets team. Maybe Gaudreau finds immediate chemistry with Patrik Laine, especially on the power play, but there isn’t any center here that’s close to Elias Lindholm’s level. The supporting cast will make it difficult for Gaudreau to achieve those heights.

The biggest question is how much of last year’s defensive improvement was real, and how much can be credited to his linemates. By GSVA, Gaudreau received a lot of credit for improved two-way play and part of his inflated projected value is a result of that. But that’s likely a matter of playing in Darryl Sutter’s strong system with two sound defensive players, one of which earned a Selke nomination. It’ll be hard to replicate here — especially playing with two players who had some of the worst defensive results in the league last season — and it’s why Gaudreau will likely have a hard time being a true 4.4-win player in Columbus as projected.

Adding 4.4 wins to Columbus’ total from last year gets the Blue Jackets close to 90 points, so it’s easy to talk oneself into believing Gaudreau’s presence gets them there. But aside from Gaudreau looking like someone who likely underperforms his projected value within his new context, there are two other factors at play. Columbus is probably not a true 81-point team outside of Gaudreau (as discussed above), and it’s even harder to get to that total after the team dealt arguably its best winger in Oliver Bjorkstrand in order to fit Gaudreau under the cap.

Columbus is not adding 4.4 wins in a vacuum because they lost roughly two wins in dealing Bjorkstrand. That changes the math significantly here, making it more difficult for the club to get within sniffing distance of the postseason.

Gaudreau is the type of player who makes others around him better. Laine will be more dangerous this year, as will Boone Jenner if he’s the guy between them. Werenski should improve too with another offensive weapon around. The power play, which ranked 24th in the league, should be a lot better.

But all of that alone isn’t enough. There will need to be tangible improvements elsewhere across the board because what was here before Gaudreau’s arrival arguably wasn’t enough, and that only lessened after the team moved Bjorkstrand.

The wildcard

Can Kent Johnson and/or Cole Sillinger be the solution down the middle?

Throughout the Blue Jackets’ history, one common thread has been the search for genuine depth down the middle. Jarmo Kekalainen has made it an obvious priority in recent drafts, including 2021, when the team selected Johnson at No. 5 and Sillinger at No. 12.

The early returns on both are promising; Sillinger deserves credit for sticking in the NHL as an 18-year-old; he also managed to put up 31 points. His underlying numbers are nothing special, though his expected goals percentage is a tick above break-even among the rest of the Blue Jackets … and again, he was 18, which puts him in some impressive company (Elias Lindholm, Bo Horvat, Sean Monahan and J.T. Miller are among his top comps). He could wind up on a line with Jake Voracek. That means lots of setups from the wing, and an opportunity to build on an impressive rookie season.

Johnson, on the other hand, returned to Michigan, then had three assists in a nine-game NHL cameo. His skill is remarkable — anyone who has watched his national team games can attest — but at this point, he’s a left winger. A move back to the middle certainly will be on the table, but for this season, Sillinger is closer to establishing himself as a top-two center.

The core

Johnny Gaudreau, Jakub Voracek, Patrik Laine, Boone Jenner, Zach Werenski, Vladislav Gavrikov, Elvis Merzlikins

Gaudreau is the newest core player for Columbus and immediately gives it some gravity with his presence. He’s a franchise player. Even if the winger can’t reach the heights of his MVP-caliber 2021-22 season in Calgary, he still gives this team an elite winger that anyone would want to build around. The only question, of course, is whether Columbus can do that while he’s still playing at this level.

Gaudreau is a positive influence who can elevate the team around him, which could help players outperform their projections. Two names that stand out are Boone Jenner and Patrik Laine.

Laine’s the flashier name. The 2016 No. 2 pick has a lethal shot, but is a flawed player who struggles away from the puck. His first year in Columbus was awful; he scored at a career-low rate of 1.6 points per 60, after struggling in the shot volume and quality department. And his five-on-five offensive impacts slipped, as well. But Laine rebounded last year, scoring 26 goals and 56 points in 56 games that were earned at a career-high rate of 3.19 points per 60. The finishing talent was there, even though his shot creation still lacked compared to earlier seasons. If he were to play alongside Gaudreau, one of the best passers in the league, it’s possible the shoot-first forward reaches new heights. Last year, his shots weren’t always preceded by a high-danger pass so pairing up with Gaudreau has the potential to be game-changing. And maybe that duo can out-possess their opponents enough that the defensive zone isn’t such a red flag. Maybe. There’s a good chance that the duo’s defensive inability limits their ability to generate offense.

The other problem with sticking Laine and Gaudreau on a line, however, is that this Blue Jackets team becomes awfully top-heavy. Jenner’s an option to play between this duo, as the defensive balance this combination could use — though his numbers in that regard were seriously lacking last season. The forward isn’t close to the elite 1C caliber a contender should want, which is what the Blue Jackets are obviously striving to be based on the massive contract they handed out to Gaudreau. Sometimes, two high-end wingers can make up for a gap down the middle. But Jenner projects closer to bottom-six territory, while Laine’s five-on-five impacts (and awful 2020-21, which the model features) stunt that line’s rating. To Laine and Jenner’s credit, both players were more valuable last year than depicted here at 1.5 and 0.9 wins respectively. Matching that value would give Columbus a much-needed boost, and it’s easy to see it happening with a player of Gaudreau’s ilk on the left side.

Jenner in particular should outperform that 0.3 GSVA, but the question is to what degree. He can be trusted in any situation and Jennerates secondary scoring for his team; he’s coming off a career-high scoring rate of 2.19 points per 60. The forward’s shot quality trended up from the last few seasons at five-on-five and high-danger passes helped set some of those shots up. With Gaudreau, that likely would kick up to the next level, as long as he can keep up with his linemates. His versatility so far in his career indicates that’s possible, but there’s a difference between being a stabilizing defensive force that helps push the pace of play and one who ends up dragging a combination down.

Rounding out the Blue Jackets’ forward core is Jakub Voracek. Seeing as he’s more of a playmaker, it may make more sense to keep him away from Gaudreau to keep a passer in another top-six combination. His scoring did dip from the last few years, and some of that stems from a career-low 0.26 goals per 60 which was undoubtedly affected by a shallow shot rate. Voracek made up for it with his passing; at five-on-five, he had one of the highest rates of high-danger shot assists in the league.

But Voracek’s ability to drive play has become more one-dimensional over the last few years with little defense to speak of. Now, that offense is essentially all passing too, further limiting his toolkit. Not only can that become predictable, but it’s only so helpful without an effective goal scorer alongside him. A volume shooter would be handy here, and this is where the loss of Bjorkstrand is felt in particular.

For years, the Columbus core defenders were Werenski and Seth Jones. The roving duo thrived on a pair together, and when the latter was traded to Chicago, there were questions about how Werenski would manage without his mainstay partner. While his GSVA took a dip from where he stood last year — just on the cusp of being a true No. 1 — the fall isn’t entirely surprising considering the team around him.

It’s possible the model underrates Werenski, who was stronger below the surface than his poor 40 percent goals rate would indicate. Relative to his teammates, he had one of the most positive influences on the Blue Jackets. The goal scoring just wasn’t there to back it up. That puts more pressure on him to live up to the role this year. The 25-year-old should produce on the power play with a loaded top unit and keep up his high-end puck-moving at five-on-five. He’s one of the best defensem*n in the league at exiting the zone and joining the rush, but still has some room to grow to become a true bonafide No. 1 caliber defender for this team — while he’s in his prime.

Columbus doesn’t have another true core defender, so for now Vladislav Gavrikov fit the bill — and with his contract expiring he has a year to prove he’s part of the solution here. Gavrikov can be trusted to defend the blue line and keep opponents from generating chances against off the rush, but has slipped from where he stood at this time last year. Before the last season he was valued as a No. 3 defender thanks to his defensive ability, but his ability to suppress chances really slipped last year.

Lastly, there’s the Blue Jackets’ starting goalie in Elvis Merzlikins. Columbus leaned on him more than ever last year with 59 games played, which is almost double his prior high at the NHL level of 32. Merzlikins was tested by his team. He faced some of the worst defensive play of his NHL career at five-on-five and didn’t always respond well to his challenging workload, allowing 6.5 goals above expected. Based on his career so far, it’s plausible that he bounces back and because of his history he grades out just below an average starter (2.1 wins).

Obviously it would help to have more goal support and defensive improvements, but the latter probably shouldn’t be expected. That puts the onus on Merzlikins to step up and be the Blue Jackets’ backbone, even if the team around him doesn’t.

The support

By far the most intriguing pieces of Columbus’ supporting cast are Kent Johnson and Cole Sillinger, drafted fifth and 12th respectively in 2021. An immediate impact from either would greatly change the fortunes of Columbus this season. If just one explodes unexpectedly, the Blue Jackets are in a much better place.

Kirill Marchenko looks to be flanking that duo on the third line and he’s also intriguing. He only scored 20 points in 39 games last year in the KHL, but that was while averaging under 12 minutes per night. The success of Columbus’ “kid line” will dictate just how high this team can go.

For a successful season, they desperately need it to happen — the team’s supporting cast is pretty barren otherwise. Columbus is only expected to gain 0.3 wins of value from players outside its core group, second last to only Arizona. An average playoff team is closer to 7.5 wins — a 15-point swing that would put Columbus in the playoff race.

Outside of hoping for Johnson and Sillinger to perform from the get-go, a more balanced season from Gustav Nyquist would help greatly. He scored 53 points last year, but there were issues defensively that hurt his value, like Jenner and Laine. This is where the addition of Gaudreau helps: it pushes Nyquist down to a more suitable role in the middle six. Nyquist was once an excellent play-drive. While it’s asking a lot for him to keep that up at age 33, a shift down the lineup might help.

Jack Roslovic may be the team’s best center and that’s a problem. Neither he nor Jenner are true top-six options, though Roslovic isn’t far off. He gets outchanced just like everyone in Columbus, but relative to teammates he’s a plus. Since joining the Blue Jackets he’s scored 2.1 points per 60 at five-on-five, a top-line rate. He’s a decent passer and is one of the team’s better options at moving the puck up ice. Establishing himself as a legit second-line center would help Columbus’ fortunes a fair bit.

The defense is nothing to write home about, especially after Werenski. Adam Boqvist flashed potential in Chicago, but was one of the league’s worst puck-movers last year and was awful defending the rush. He’s decent in the offensive zone, but had one of the lowest expected goals-against rates on the team for a reason. Jake Bean, another highly-touted young defender, isn’t any better.

Andrew Peeke comes in well below replacement level as a one-dimensional defender who was asked to do way too much last year. A lesser role might help him earn stronger results, but the lack of capable support may hinder that. Erik Gudbranson is a perfect example. After being miscast for years in a top-four role, he thrived last season on Calgary’s third pair. It’s unlikely that success continues here in Columbus if he’s moved back to the top four.

The best case

Gaudreau turns in another MVP-caliber season, Laine rounds out his game next to him, the team’s young guns — Sillinger and Johnson — become instant difference-makers, and Merzlikins is a top 10 goalie. Add Werenski exploding into an elite defender and it’s enough for the Blue Jackets to make the playoffs.

The worst case

This forecast, which calls for four fewer points than last season, being accurate. Outside the playoffs and the bottom five is exactly where this team can’t be.

The bottom line

The Blue Jackets shook up the offseason by signing Gaudreau. While this addition gives the team a core piece they were missing — one that gets them closer to contention — it probably isn’t enough to parachute Columbus up the division standings.

Still, the Gaudreau Effect may be enough to elevate the rest of this squad to make some noise in the Metropolitan Division, even if they ultimately don’t reach the postseason. It could be what pushes Laine to reach his draft pedigree more consistently and get Werenski to bonafide No. 1 defenseman status. The team just has a different feel now that Columbus landed the biggest free agent of the summer. There’s a lot more hope and intrigue surrounding this franchise, even if the one player that brought much of it isn’t enough to push them into the playoff picture just yet.

References

How these projections work

How these projections performed last season

Understanding projection uncertainty

Resources

Evolving Hockey

Natural Stat Trick

Hockey Reference

NHL

All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder

Read the other 2022-23 season previews here.

(Top photo of Patrik Laine: Russell LaBounty / USA Today)